Recent foreign trade news

Headlines
In US dollars, China's exports increased by 0.5% year-on-year in November
According to customs statistics, the total import and export value of China in the first 11 months of this year was 37.96 trillion yuan, which is the same as the same period last year. Among them, exports reached 21.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3%. In US dollars, the total import and export value of China in the first 11 months of this year was 5.41 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 5.6%. Among them, exports amounted to 3.08 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 5.2%.
In November this year, China's imports and exports reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. Among them, exports reached 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. In terms of US dollars, in November this year, China's imports and exports amounted to 515.47 billion US dollars, which is the same as the same period last year. Among them, exports reached 291.93 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.5%.
In the first 11 months, ASEAN became my largest trading partner, with exports to ASEAN reaching 3.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.1%;
The EU is my second largest trading partner, with exports to the EU reaching 3.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.8%;
The United States is my third largest trading partner, with exports to the United States reaching 3.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.5%;
Japan is my fourth largest trading partner, with exports to Japan reaching 1.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.3%.
exchange rate
Institutions predict the trend of RMB exchange rate next year
Market institutions generally believe that the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate in this round is due to the improvement in the external environment brought about by the fall of the US dollar index in November.
Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, stated at the press conference on financial statistics for the third quarter of this year that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to be nearing its end, US bond yields to fall after reaching a 10-year high, and the US China interest rate spread will gradually return to the normal range, which will help support the RMB exchange rate.

Gao Ruidong, Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute at Everbright Securities, stated that at the end of the year and beginning of the year, domestic stable growth policies are expected to further strengthen, providing further support for the RMB exchange rate. Looking ahead to 2024, the economic and monetary policy cycles of China and the United States are expected to shift from divergence to convergence, driving the renminbi into an appreciation channel, but the space is limited by the magnitude of the decline in the US dollar index.

According to a research report by Minsheng Bank Research Institute, overall, as various policy measures in China continue to take effect and the economy continues to rebound, RMB assets will have sustained attractiveness. Coupled with the weakening trend of the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate is expected to trend back up in 2024, and the RMB to US dollar exchange rate is likely to return to within 7.
According to a research report by Dongwu Securities, looking ahead to 2024, there are mainly three basic judgments about the RMB: first, it will appreciate moderately throughout the year; Secondly, according to the normal pace, the depreciation pressure in the first half of the year will be greater, but this may not be in line with policy demands; The third is to present a characteristic of "high at the beginning and end of the year, low in the middle" in the overall rhythm, and may periodically rise above "7".
policy
The State Council deploys to accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade
The State Council executive meeting held on December 1st discussed and clarified several measures to accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade development. The meeting pointed out that accelerating the integration of domestic and foreign trade development is an inherent requirement for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development. To benchmark against the international advanced level, accelerate the adjustment and improvement of relevant domestic rules, regulations, management, standards, etc., promote the connection of domestic and foreign trade standards, inspection and certification, and supervision, and promote the same line, same standard, and same quality of domestic and foreign trade products.
The meeting also pointed out the need to focus on enterprise demand and market feedback, optimize policies in a timely manner, effectively overcome key obstacles to the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and help enterprises smoothly switch between domestic and international markets. To optimize the development environment of integrated domestic and foreign trade, implement relevant fiscal and financial support policies, and jointly promote high-quality development of domestic and foreign trade.
United States
Proposed new rules for tax reduction and exemption of electric vehicles, restricting Chinese enterprises
On December 1st, the US government issued proposed new rules on tax reduction for electric vehicles, explaining which electric vehicles are eligible for tax reduction benefits and imposing restrictions on electric vehicle manufacturers purchasing battery materials from China or other competing countries.
According to proposed guidelines released by the US Treasury and other departments on December 1st, in order to strengthen the security of the US supply chain, starting from 2024, eligible electric vehicles must not contain any battery components manufactured or assembled by Foreign Sensitive Entities (FEOCs), and starting from 2025, eligible electric vehicles must not contain any critical minerals extracted, processed, or recycled by FEOCs.
The new rules aim to implement the relevant requirements of the US Inflation Reduction Act. Foreign Sensitive Entities (FEOCs) include individuals owned, controlled, administered, or instructed by the governments of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. According to the guidelines, all companies registered and established in China or whose Chinese government holds 25% or more of their shares will be considered foreign sensitive entities. If 25% of a company's board seats, voting rights, or equity are held by sensitive entities, the company will also be considered a sensitive entity.
EU
Imports from China decreased by 17.5% in the first three quarters
On November 15th, the Eurostat released data showing that from January to September 2023, the EU China goods trade volume (without seasonal adjustment) was 556.1 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, EU exports to China amounted to 167.4 billion euros, a decrease of 1.9%, while imports from China amounted to 388.7 billion euros, a decrease of 17.5%; The EU's trade deficit with China reached 221.4 billion euros, a decrease of 26.3%.
During the same period, the overall foreign trade of the European Union (excluding intra EU trade without seasonal adjustments) amounted to 3806.3 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Among them, EU exports amounted to 1901.3 billion euros, an increase of 0.7%; Imports amounted to 1905 billion euros, a decrease of 15.2%; The trade deficit was 3.7 billion euros, compared to 358.7 billion euros in the same period last year.
Argentina
Preliminary anti-dumping ruling on zippers and their parts related to China
On December 4, 2023, the Argentine Ministry of Economy issued Announcement No. 1672 of 2023, making a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on zippers and their parts originating from China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Peru (Spanish: Cierres de cremallera y cintas, con dientes de metal com ú n, de monofilamento de nailon o poli é ster y de pl á stico invitado). The preliminary ruling found that the products involved in China, India, Indonesia, and Peru were subject to dumping, which caused substantial damage to Argentine domestic industries; It was ruled that there was dumping of the products involved in Brazil, but the dumping did not cause substantial harm or threat of harm to the Argentine industry.
Therefore, it is decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties of 117.83%, 314.29%, 279.89%, and 104% respectively on the products involved in China, India, Indonesia, and Peru. The measures for the products involved in China, India, and Indonesia are valid for four months, while the measures for the products involved in Peru are valid for six months; At the same time, terminate the anti-dumping investigation on the products involved in Brazil and refrain from implementing anti-dumping measures. The measures shall take effect from the date of announcement. The products involved in the case are zippers and fabric belts with ordinary metal, nylon or polyester fiber teeth, as well as injection molded chain teeth. The tax codes of the products are 9607.11.00, 9607.19.00, and 9607.20.00.
Australia
Starting from 2024, import of disposable electronic cigarettes is prohibited
On the 28th local time, the Australian government announced that it will ban the import of disposable e-cigarettes from January 1, 2024, in order to prevent more children from becoming addicted to nicotine.
According to the BBC, it has been illegal for any Australian to purchase or import e-cigarettes without a doctor's prescription since 2021. Despite these restrictions, the addiction rate to e-cigarettes continues to soar.
In a statement by the Australian government, approximately one seventh of children aged 14 to 17 use electronic cigarettes.
India
Notice on Rectification of Imported Food Labels
On November 28, 2023, the Food Safety Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a TIC-B02/3/2023-IMPORTS-FSSAI notice stating that the labeling of imported food can be rectified. The main content is that, except for the following three situations, unqualified imported food labels can be rectified in the customs bonded warehouse:
(1) Batch number, code, or batch number error;
(2) Date marking (production or packaging date, shelf life, or best use date) is incorrect;
(3) The country of origin of imported food is incorrect. After the imported food labels pass the inspection, sampling and inspection can be carried out.
This notice shall take effect from the date of publication.
For more details, please refer to:
https://fssai.gov.in/upload/advisories/2023/11/6565a92ca991alabel%20rectification%20order_28.11.2023.pdf