On June 15, the General Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation jointly released the "China Foreign Trade Situation Report (Spring 2020)". The "Report" reviews China's foreign trade operations in 2019 and the first five months of 2020, and analyzes China's foreign trade development environment in 2020.
"Report" pointed out that in 2019, in the context of the overall slowdown in global economic and trade, China's foreign trade has grown against the trend, the scale has reached a record high, achieved stability and improved quality, and achieved new results in high-quality development. In 2020, the development of foreign trade is facing increased environmental uncertainty, the supply chain of the industrial chain is blocked, and international trade and investment are shrinking. Difficulties in domestic enterprises, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, have been highlighted, and employment pressure has increased. The risks and challenges facing China's foreign trade development are extremely complex and severe. At the same time, it should also be noted that with the gradual alleviation of the impact of the domestic epidemic situation, economic production activities have gradually returned to normal, and the solid foundation of the foreign trade throughout the year and the promotion of foreign trade stability and quality improvement still have a solid foundation and strong support.
Epidemic hits global economy and trade
The sudden outbreak of new coronary pneumonia has had a huge impact on international trade. Not long ago, the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that global merchandise trade will decline by 13% to 32% in 2020, and almost all regions will experience double-digit declines. At the same time, the UNCTAD report also pointed out in its report that the epidemic has severely affected the economies of both developing and developed countries. It is expected that the trade of many developing countries will drop sharply in the second quarter of this year, and the trade will shrink. More severe than in the 2008 global financial crisis.
The "Report" analyzes that the impact of the epidemic on global trade is mainly reflected in four aspects:
One is the decrease in export orders. Demand in the international market has shrunk severely, foreign trade companies generally face problems such as cancellation or extension of orders in hand, and difficulties in signing new orders. Small and medium-sized foreign trade companies are more affected.
Second, the supply chain of the industrial chain is blocked. Large-scale production shutdowns in major economies have disrupted or broken the upstream supply chain of Chinese enterprises.
The third is rising trade costs. Many countries have adopted measures to restrict the flow of people, logistics, and trade, which have a greater impact on the smooth flow of international goods such as maritime and air transport.
Fourth, the corporate capital chain is under pressure. Overseas customers postpone orders, compress orders and even cancel orders in a large amount. The risk of default has risen rapidly, the foreign trade payment period has increased, and the risk of foreign exchange collection has increased.
Wang Huiyao, director of the global think tank, said, "In the coming months and years, open trade will be crucial for countries to fight against epidemic disease, balance global supply and demand, and promote long-term economic growth."
China moves in a timely and effective manner
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, despite the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the total imports and exports of the country fell by 4.9% year-on-year from January to May, but they still showed "the increase in the share of private enterprises' exports" and "the increase in the share of exports in the central and western regions." Highlights such as the increase in commodity imports and falling prices.
The "Report" pointed out that in the face of the huge impact of the epidemic on foreign trade, the Chinese government promptly issued a series of foreign policy stabilization measures, struck a policy "combination punch", and made every effort to stabilize the basic foreign trade plate.
For example, in terms of assisting enterprises with precision, we will further improve the export tax rebate policy, reduce the burden on enterprises, further expand the coverage of export credit insurance short-term insurance, and promote a reasonable reduction in rates; in terms of optimizing the layout of the international market, encourage online exhibitions and explore online Under the new synchronous interaction, organic integration of new exhibition management models, make full use of modern information technology to help enterprises overcome difficulties; in terms of cultivating new forms of trade new models, 46 new cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test zones have been established. Facilitate the first trial first, and further leverage the unique advantages of cross-border e-commerce; in support of the development of processing trade, suspend the collection of tax deferral interest for processing trade enterprises, and expand the trial of selective taxation for domestic sales...
In an interview with our reporter, Peng Zhiwei, director of the Department of International Economics and Trade of Nankai University, pointed out that as a global trading country, China has taken a series of effective measures in the process of responding to the epidemic, helping the majority of foreign trade companies to protect the market, order and cooperation 1. Protect the share and maximize the market players in the foreign trade field. The achievements are hard-won.
"From the perspective of the first five months of this year, the decline in foreign trade imports and exports is lower than the overall macroeconomic decline, which confirms the positive results of stabilizing foreign trade from one side." Peng Zhiwei said.
"Promoting stability and improving quality" has great potential
The "Report" believes that at present, with the gradual alleviation of the impact of the domestic epidemic situation, economic production activities have gradually returned to normal, and the solid foundation of the foreign trade throughout the year and the promotion of foreign trade stability and quality improvement still have a solid foundation and strong support.
"In the short term, the risks and challenges facing China's foreign trade development are unprecedented. In the long term, China has a strong industrial foundation and the most complete industrial system in the world. China and the relevant countries have a solid foundation for trade cooperation, full potential, and high-quality and low-cost Chinese products. The reputation is good, the export of epidemic prevention materials grew rapidly during the epidemic situation, and new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce are booming, which fully demonstrates the characteristics of China's foreign trade with high resilience, sufficient potential, and strong competitiveness." "Report" analysis.
Peng Zhiwei further pointed out that in 2019, in the context of the overall slowdown in global economic and trade, China's foreign trade has grown against the trend, the scale has reached a record high, achieving stability and improving quality, achieving new results in high-quality development, and making positive contributions to the national economic and social development. The global economic and trade recovery has injected momentum. These are the foundations for China to "stabilize the basic foreign trade plate" and "achieve high-quality development."
"From a practical point of view, foreign trade orders generally have a certain lag effect, so as the pre-order orders are gradually digested, the test for Chinese foreign trade companies in the next few months may be more difficult. For this, we will further increase The counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, such as major monetary policies and fiscal policies, is to do a good job of "six stability" and "six guarantees". At the same time, it must continue to be motivated by "reform" and "opening", so that foreign trade enterprises can have better Business environment and trade environment." Peng Zhiwei said.
