From the first half of 2020 component export viewing dimension trend development

As the time series enters the middle of 2020, the silicon chip size competition is in full swing. In the first half of the year to May, China's export components are expected to be dominated by G1(158.75mm), accounting for 60% of the total export volume. The export of M2(156.75mm) components has gradually declined with high watt-size demand in overseas markets, with the export share dropping from 90% in Q1 2019 to 20% in q2 2020Q2. On the other hand, the export volume of G1 components is increasing quarter by quarter, and the export volume of M6 components is also rising gradually from this year. It is estimated that the export volume of M6 components accounts for 2GW in the second quarter. By the end of this year, the parallel situation of G1 and M6 dimensions may appear.

In addition, the Chinese New Year this year crystal, ja, trina solar, Oriental nison, sheng, longji and artest has released a large size components leading companies new products, and at the end of the second quarter size reform situation unclear, rising by trina solar leader, Orient and ring for a G12 sheng (210 mm) team, crystal, longji, RON artest and ja to M10 (182 mm), and have been in overseas for shipment volume M6 (166 mm) components, for later M6, M10 and a G12 the basis of the size of The Three Kingdoms. Moreover, the G12 components released at the beginning of the year started mass production in the third quarter, which shows the rapid iteration of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, PV InfoLink analyzes the export proportion of manufacturers, market demand, component technology application differences and FOB price trend from the perspective of size.

Manufacturers size export volume

As of May this year, the total export volume of single crystal PERC is 19.8GW, among which M2 module accumulative export volume is 5.1GW, G1 module accumulative export volume is 11.7GW, M4(161.7mm) module accumulative export volume is 661MW, 163mm(actually 163.75mm) module accumulative export volume is 182MW, M6 module accumulative export volume is 2.1GW, G12 module export volume is still less than 1MW.

From the cumulative size of export components from January to May, it can be found that some manufacturers still export old orders for M2 components, among which the most are 811MW Artes, 795MW Longji and 703MW Dongfang Risheng, accounting for 45.6% of the total export volume of M2 components from January to May. Among them, M2 component is also the main shipped product of Artis at present, accounting for 64.4% of artis cumulative export volume.

Jinko Solar, Ja Solar and Trina Solar are the top three manufacturers exporting G1 components, with 3.3GW of Jinko solar, 2.3GW of Ja Solar and 1.5GW of Trina Solar respectively, accounting for 60.7% of G1 component exports from January to May. In terms of the proportion of manufacturers' shipments, G1 component is also the main product of the three manufacturers, accounting for 95.8% of Jinko's exports, 92% of Ja's exports and 85.3% of TRW's exports, respectively. With Longji as the main supplier of M6 components, longji has exported 1.5GW in total, accounting for 68.9% of the export volume of M6 components. It can be said that longji's components account for nearly 70% of all M6 components exported overseas by China. M6 components are also longi's main export products, accounting for 65% of longi's total export volume. The suppliers of 163mm and M4 components are Jinko and Hanwha, respectively, which have exported 660MW and 182MW, respectively. However, 163mm components currently account for only 5% of Jinko's exports, while M4 components account for nearly 70% of Hanwha's exports.

National component size requirements

In the export destination country, M4 components are not only shipped to the Netherlands 206MW, but also exported to Germany 201MW, accounting for 62% of the total export of M4 components. Vietnam is the main export destination country of 163mm components, accounting for 80% of the total export of 163mm components.

Under the situation that G1 size is the mainstream this year, many countries have a strong pull for G1 components, accounting for more than 50% of the total exports to that country. The export proportion ranges from the United States, India, Brazil, Ukraine, Vietnam, Australia, The Netherlands and Spain. In addition, Ukraine, Australia and Mexico also have higher demand for M6 components than other countries, all accounting for about 20% of their total exports.

Application of dimension technology

In different sizes, the application of component technology is still half slice, among which up to 70% of M6 components use half slice technology. According to the component shipments accumulated up to May, longji exports are the most, and 72 mainstream watts fall in 430W-440W. With the hot signing of overseas M6 components, some manufacturers have upgraded their G1 and other production capacity to M6 to meet the demand. It is expected that the export of M6 components will continue to increase in the second half of this year, and the shipment of M6 will be competitive at the end of the year.

There are a lot of manufacturers that use G1 semi-chip technology to export components. Except for jinko 2.2GW, zhengtai and suntech, the top three export manufacturers have exported less than 1GW respectively, there are 1.8GW shipped by other manufacturers. The proportion of M2 components with semi-chip technology is relatively average. Longji, Artes and Dongfang Risheng each account for 20% of the export volume. The mainstream wattage falls in Longji 375W-380W, Artes 385W-400W and Dongfang Risheng 380W-385W respectively.

The M6 and G1 size components are delivered by leading dachang, which are 420-435W for Artes and 430W for TRW. The G1 components are exported by TRW, JINao and Risheng. The main wattage is 390W, 400W and 405W.

Shingle technical components are still mainly M2 in size, with the main watts falling between 400 and 415W, mainly supplied by Huansheng.

Price difference of components of different sizes

Affected by component card for export and for shipment, March 2 to single crystal PERC components exports drop of 3.3 GW, FOB shipment component prices failed to reflect the real situation, but throughout a to may still could tell, regardless of the size of using component FOB shipment price for manufacturers, resulting in the reduction in demand expansion and downward trend from month to month. Due to reduced demand, M2 components are gradually sold to customized products, and some of them are exported for earlier orders, so the price is quite different from G1. Due to the new production capacity of M6 components, the production line cost is lower than M2 and G1, plus mainly by a few manufacturers shipping, so the price trend tends to be stable and slightly down. In addition, M6 manufacturers have lowered their quotations to consolidate orders and reduced prices to enhance the competitiveness of high-wattage components. Therefore, it can be observed that the prices of G1 and M6 components tend to be the same price from April to May.

The size situation is changing rapidly. Although G1 size components are the mainstream since this year, it is found that the export volume of M6 and above components grows rapidly, which cannot be underestimated. In addition to the strong demand for large size orders in the second half of the year, it is expected that the proportion of M6 size shipments will probably compete with G1 components by the end of the year.

From the perspective of manufacturers, Longji's shipments of M6 components still account for the majority, with Jinko and Ja 'AO as the main export manufacturers of G1 components. Although Jinko has covered 163mm since the first quarter, it still accounts for a small proportion in its overall export volume, so it must continue to pay attention to the shipment in the second half of the year. At present, Artis still exports most of its products in M2 size. In order to meet the demand for large-size components in overseas markets, it is expected that the focus of future shipments will be shifted to M6 components.

Among overseas markets, countries such as the United States, India, Brazil, Ukraine and Vietnam account for a relatively high proportion of G1 component exports, accounting for 50% of their total exports. The Netherlands and Germany are the major markets for M4 components, while Vietnam is the major market for 163mm components. Ukraine, Australia and Mexico have higher demand for M6 components than other countries.

From the technical point of view, half slice is still the main application technology in all sizes. The difference is that the use of imbricating technology is still dominated by the M2 size, while the M6 size with imbricating technology is only a small volume.

The export volume of M6 components is expected to rise rapidly with the shipment of large overseas orders of M6 and above in the second half of the year, 182mm and G12 components are in gestation period, and there will be a small amount of overseas exports.