Forecast trend of China's PV module export in the second half of the year

Polaris solar photovoltaic webex: photovoltaic components accumulated in the first half of this year China's exports amounted to 33.8 GW, which is still in entrepot trade port of the Dutch occupation of export market for the first throne, cumulative pv components exports amounted to 7.1 GW, Japan's second accumulated 3 GW, third Australian export 2.2 GW, India, Brazil, Spain, Germany and other exports of Vietnam market is more than 1.5 GW, located in Chile and the United States of America accumulated exports are all more than 1 GW, respectively.

Overview of the first Half of 2020

Photovoltaic components accumulated in the first half of this year China's exports amounted to 33.8 GW, which is still in entrepot trade port of the Dutch occupation of export market first throne, cumulative pv components exports amounted to 7.1 GW, Japan's second accumulated 3 GW, third Australian exports 2.2 GW, India, Brazil, Spain, Germany and other exports of Vietnam market is more than 1.5 GW, located in Chile and the United States of America accumulated exports are all more than 1 GW, respectively.

In the second quarter, the European market represented by the Netherlands was less affected in response to the epidemic, and continued to pull goods. The export of components to the Netherlands reached 4.4GW in the second quarter, a 60% growth compared with the same period last year, which became an important support for the overseas market under the epidemic in the second quarter. The strong pull of the European market does not rule out the possibility of early pull, which may lead to a slowdown in component demand in the second half of the year, the strength of the decline.

In Japan, the loading deadline for the remaining items fell in the third quarter, so the stable loading could be seen in the first half of the year. Vietnam introduced a new feed-in tariff in April, so exports to Vietnam in the second quarter were 1.1 GIGAwatts (GW), though not as hot as last year.

Top 10 market analysis

Overall, the share of exports in the top 10 markets in the first half of this year was not much different from last year. In terms of individual markets alone, the proportion of photovoltaic modules exported from China to the Netherlands increased from 13% to 21% last year, indicating strong demand in the European market.

Japanese demand is still fairly stable compared with last year. In addition, the Indian market, which has always been the focus of Q1, has not only been affected by the epidemic this year, but also the international situation is unstable. As a result, the share of exports in the first half of the year has dropped from 9% last year to 6% this year. But the Indian market began to unblock in July, and exports are expected to rise in the second half of the year.

Vietnam was encouraged by the FIT feed-in tariff policy implemented in the second quarter. In the first half of this year, the strength of goods delivery increased month by month, and the demand continued to run. In the first half of this year, the total amount of components exported to Vietnam reached 1.5GW, making Vietnam jump into the top ten export markets.

On the other hand, despite repeated policies, the US market was basically in the state of tax exemption for double-sided components in the first half of the year. The rapid cost reduction of domestic components in the first half enabled the double-sided components to make quite good profits during the period of 201 exemption. Therefore, the US could also rank among the top ten destination countries for export in the first half of the year.

It was observed that the leading manufacturers in the top ten markets were mainly jinko, Ja, Artes, Trina Solar and Longji, which accounted for more than half of the export volume of the market respectively, corresponding to the trend of rapid expansion of the market share of the leading big manufacturers under the epidemic.

Analysis of top 10 manufacturers

In terms of the cumulative export volume of manufacturers, Jinko has continued to be the export leader, with an accumulative export volume of 5GW components, closely followed by Ja with an accumulative total export volume of 3.4GW, artes and Trina solar both exported 3.4GW, and Longji exported 2.9GW.

Cumulative exports from the manufacturer can be found that our manufacturers have obvious fault between exports, affected by the epidemic successively in both at home and abroad and logistics transportation, each manufacturer unavoidably suffered from affected, particularly in India, or South America export-oriented manufacturers in exports has plummeted, and in the capital, transportation and human resources is not the lack of head enterprises is to maintain stable shipments.

From the export proportion of the top ten manufacturers in the first half of the year, it can be found that the top five major export manufacturers are Jinko, Jinao, Artes, Trina Solar and Longji respectively, accounting for 53% of the overall export volume. Compared with last year, Longji ranked in the first half of this year into the top five, Seraphor into the top 10 components export manufacturers. In addition, component manufacturers exporting overseas also tend to be centralized, with the top five manufacturers accounting for more than half of the cumulative exports of Chinese components overseas.

According to the observation, the overseas markets of the top five manufacturers have a high degree of overlap. Europe, Asia-Pacific and Central and South America are all involved in the market, and the risks in the strategic layout are relatively dispersed. Moreover, the export markets of the top five manufacturers account for more than half of the cumulative export volume of each manufacturer. Besides the Dutch entrepot trade, Artis has an average market distribution and proportion compared with other manufacturers.

Component products and technology trends

In terms of export products, the export of single-crystal PERC components accounted for 73% in the first half of the year, while the export of conventional polycrystalline components accounted for 17%. Reviewing the monthly share of single crystal in the first half of the year, the share of single crystal has increased month by month since the first quarter, while components exported overseas in the second quarter tend to be 80% single crystal and 20% polycrystal.

Besides components products overall trends continue towards monocrystal PERC closer, it is worth noting that the main market has always been a polycrystalline India products demand also began to change, back in 2019 5% India single crystal, polycrystalline was 92%, and the products in the first half of this year to India's single crystal growth to 27%, polycrystalline proportion fell to 67%, visible towards the trend of single crystal sharp unstoppable component products around the world, the future of India's single polycrystalline accounted deserves more attention.

In addition, in the first half of this year, China's N-type component demand still takes large projects in emerging markets as the main shipping channel, with high regional concentration, and Brazil, Japan and Oman as the main export destination countries. Among them, the 72-chip version of TOPCon components accounts for a high proportion, with watts falling between 405-420W(72-cell) and 325-340W(60-cell).

As the output wattage of N-type modules is not much better than that of P-type modules combined with large-size batteries and module technology, and the long-term single demand to Brazil is gradually weakening, the export volume of N-type modules in the first half year is only about 200MW.

In the application of component technology, half chip technology is still the most widely used, usually combined with conventional polycrystalline and single-crystal PERC battery. However, since the second quarter of this year, among the top five leading manufacturers, trina solar has accounted for more than half of its export volume, and Ja Australia and Artes have accounted for nearly half of its export volume.

In addition, in the high-density component part, Jinko began to export laminated welding components, while Longji and Artes continued to export a small amount of laminated components. With the increasing demand for large-size components, it can be predicted that the future technology trend of components from export components of leading large factories will gradually change from half-piece, multi-main grid superposition half-piece to high-density technologies such as stacking welding and small-piece spacing.

conclusion

Despite the epidemic situation in the first half of 2020, the impact on component exports is limited. Europe accounted for nearly 50% of the exports in the second quarter. As some European projects extend the connection period to the first half of next year, European demand is expected to slow down in the second half. In The Asian region, the demand for components in the Japanese market is stable at 500-600MW per month in the first half of the year. By the end of the third quarter of this year, most of the remaining large projects will be installed in the third quarter of this year, and the export volume is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. PV InfoLink believes that the third quarter of this year will be the peak period for Exports of Chinese components to Vietnam. PV Infolink estimates global component demand could reach about 124.7GW this year, with Europe at 22.1GW and Asia at 29.4GW. Overseas market share fell to 67 per cent from 75 per cent last year.

In the first half of this year, the photovoltaic industry was shrouded in the haze of the epidemic. However, from the shipments, it can be clearly found that the leading big factories can maintain stable exports due to their abundant resources, and the market concentration degree is quite obvious, which also catalyze the process of small factories being squeezed out and accelerating the elimination.

From the perspective of export products of various manufacturers, the proportion of single crystal has reached as high as 80%, and in the first half of this year, the proportion of polycrystal in India, which paid great attention to the polycrystal market in the past, also dropped from 90% to 60%. It is estimated that the proportion of single crystal in India will continue to increase by the end of this year, and the proportion of single crystal will have a chance to be more than 50% next year.

First-line manufacturer of components export since the second quarter by half a piece of transferred to the more than half a piece of superposition of the grid technology, 72 pieces of single crystal PERC component mainstream tile fell in 390-405 w, and high density of 163 mm stitch welding components since the second quarter, exports increased dramatically, expected in the first half of the accumulated exports more than 250 mw, tile fell in 455-460 w, export FOB price is difference from the mainstream component. The 166mm module wattages are about 430-440W, with an estimated cumulative export of 4GW in January-June. In addition to observe 210 mm to match the main gate and the components of all three technology tile fell between 485-500 - w, although it deliver phase exports are still less than 1 mw, but compared with N components wattage, P type PERC components in large size and the trend of high wattage led is still under the overwhelming superiority, the second half of the overall size of 166 mm or more components shipments proportion will continue to rise.