Analysis of the reasons behind The growth of Chinese foreign trade against the trend

China has seen a sharp rise in the volume of its exports since July and a surge in demand for export containers, leading to a shortage of container sources, soaring freight rates and delayed turnover in both the shipping market and the China-Europe freight trains, according to the China Container Industry Association. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said at its regular press conference that since the beginning of this year, The State Council has introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade in line with the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee in response to the severe challenges posed by COVID-19. China's foreign trade has continued to gain stability and has played an important role in ensuring stability of the global industrial and supply chains and promoting world economic recovery.

"Black swans" increased in 2020, China's foreign trade has experienced a great challenge and pressure, but look back to the end of the year, when there are accidents with little surprise - according to customs statistics, 1 - November this year, China's trade in goods import and export value of 29.04 trillion yuan, 1.8% more than last year, which in November, China's foreign trade import and export of 3.09 trillion yuan, up 7.8% from a year earlier. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China's import and export through customs cross-border e-commerce management platforms reached 187.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. According to the data released by eurostat, the total trade volume of goods between the EU and China in the first three quarters of this year was 425.5 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 3%. China remained the EU's largest trading partner...

In the context of global trade decline, China's foreign trade as a whole shows a trend of growth against the trend. In this regard, Yu Xuejun, chairman of the Supervisory Board of key state-owned Financial institutions of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CIRC), analyzed the reasons in the fifth New Financial Forum in 2020 and mainly talked about the following two points:

First, China, as a major manufacturing country, has a complete range of industrial categories, especially in the production and manufacturing of consumer goods of daily life represented by electronic consumer products, with more advantages in the industrial chain and supply chain.

"After the global COVID-19 outbreak, China was the first to control the spread and spread of the epidemic, and the first to resume production, thus demonstrating its manufacturing advantages. And many countries in Southeast Asia, such as India, are unable to contain the spread of the epidemic, resulting in many production cannot resume as soon as possible. So now, many orders have been redirected to China, a phenomenon known as' exploding orders'." Yu xuejun said.

Second, the renminbi is under renewed pressure to appreciate. COVID - 19 cases of severe impact, the fed, which was established in March after unlimited QE policy, though its assets increase rapidly, August has more than $7 trillion, at the same time, the dollar index also fell quickly from nearly 100 is now around 91 (as of press time), to have changed since 2013, the strength of the dollar. The ultra-loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, as well as the apparent weakness of the US dollar, has led to the appreciation of the renminbi since May, from about 7.1 to 6.55 to the dollar at the beginning. In the face of the appreciation of the RMB, many people in the business and economic circles are calling for the RMB not to appreciate too quickly.

However, Yu Xuejun believes that whenever the RMB is under pressure to appreciate, China's foreign trade situation is good, and whenever the RMB is under pressure to depreciate, China's foreign trade situation is not good.

"The contrarian growth in China's exports since May is actually related to the appreciation of the renminbi over the same period. On the other hand, it is the strength of exports that has led to pressure on the appreciation of the RMB. The two are mutually reinforcing." Yu Xuejun said.

"China's foreign trade has great potential, is resilient, competitive and has a stable industrial chain. Its enterprises have a strong sense of innovation and a strong ability to exploit the market. The long-term trend of China's foreign trade development remains unchanged." Li Xinggan, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, commented.

The reporter observed that despite the impact of the epidemic, developed economies such as the United States, Japan and the European Union have strong economic resilience and high consumption capacity. China's effective control of the epidemic is conducive to the resumption of manufacturing. When the rest of the world faces difficulties in recovering production, China's supply of goods to foreign demand is a natural trend. Moreover, for a long time, The supply chain of Chinese products is relatively stable, which can better meet the demand of foreign importers. In terms of consumer categories, as the foreign middle class cannot travel and consume due to the epidemic, they have increased their consumption in decorating houses, replacing furniture and household appliances.

In the second half of this year, export orders for the furniture and home appliance industries increased significantly. By the end of October, the sales volume of the furniture industry had increased by 191 percent year on year, and the number of payment orders had increased by 112 percent year on year, according to data from Alibaba International. Sofas, beds, office tables and chairs, dining tables and chairs, children's beds and other furniture products are most popular in overseas markets. In addition, according to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in November, China exported 418.17 billion USD of labor-intensive products including furniture, up 11.1% and accounting for 18.8% of the total export value. The growth rate of China's household appliance exports increased from minus 2.8 percent in The january-June period to 9.7 percent in the January-October period, and the cumulative growth rate of household appliance exports also increased from 4.2 percent to 19.1 percent.

Insiders believe that China's future foreign trade growth pressure is still large, stable foreign trade policy is necessary to add. Specifically, we will follow the requirements of ensuring people's employment, basic livelihood, and market players, implement the policies we have introduced, and increase support for the protection of small, medium-sized, and labor-intensive foreign trade enterprises. In addition, it is necessary to further improve the way of export tax rebate, accelerate the progress of tax rebate; To guide financial institutions to strengthen financing support such as credit, credit guarantee and guarantee; We will accelerate the development of new forms and models of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce. We will encourage the construction of overseas warehouses and increase support for the construction of foreign trade service platforms.