Global economic and trade frictions show a new trend under the intensification of great power competition

On March 31, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference on the report of the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index 2020 in Beijing. Zhang Yuejiao, chairman of the Legal Advisory Committee on Economic and Trade Friction under the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), introduced the background and achievements of the research project on the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index and the main findings of the 2020 annual report.

According to Zhang, the 2020 annual report's main findings involve four aspects:

First, the situation of global economic and trade frictions is grim, and the competition between major countries is on the rise. In 2020, the global economic and trade friction index was at a high level in 9 out of 12 months, and generally showed a fluctuating upward trend. From the country (region) point of view, great power competition presents an expanding trend. In 2020, India and the United States have 9 months, the United Kingdom and the European Union have 8 months, Brazil has 7 months, the global economic and trade friction index is at a high level; The global economic and trade friction index of Argentina, Turkey, Russia, China, Indonesia and Canada is at a medium high level in most months. Nine countries, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, South Africa and South Korea, are at low levels in the global economic and trade friction index in most months.

Second, the adoption of the five categories of measures involved in the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index conforms to the basic law of the use of trade measures, but presents a new trend. The import and export restriction measures are affected by the epidemic situation and the economic and trade frictions between China and the United States, showing an obvious trend of intensifying conflicts. In 2020, the index of import and export restriction measures was high in 10 months, the highest was in March (475). The median value was 65 in 1 month; It was low for only one month. Import and export restrictive measures showed a fluctuating trend from March to June. In terms of product coverage, in 2020, the import and export restriction measures issued by 20 countries (regions) involve 69 two-digit customs codes, accounting for 70.4% of the 98 two-digit customs codes.

Trade remedy measures remain a frequent tool used by major countries, many of which extend directly to areas including intellectual property investigation and export control. In 2020, the index of trade remedy measures in 7 months was high; 3 months was in the median; The low level in only 2 months indicates that the intensity of economic and trade friction is greater. From the perspective of new cases, in 2020, the United States, India and Canada started the top three trade remedy investigations among the 20 countries (regions).

Import and export tariff measures are more cautious measures adopted by major countries. In 2020, the index of import and export tariff measures was low for 8 months; 1 month was high; It was in the middle for 3 months. The number of import and export tariff measures issued by developing countries accounted for 81.2%, led by Brazil, Turkey, Argentina and India.

Technical trade measures are "hidden", and their impact on economy and trade should be paid attention to. In 2020, the TME was in the median for most months. Compared with other measures, the economic and trade frictions and conflicts are relatively small. However, in terms of quantity, technical trade measures accounted for 47.4% of the five types of measures issued by 20 countries (regions) in 2020. Technical trade measures (TBT) are commonly used by major countries (regions) because of their more "concealment", "difficulty to supervise" and "difficulty to predict". However, it should also be noted that technical trade measures reflect the issuing country's compliance with its transparency obligations, so they need to be taken into consideration.

In terms of other restrictive measures, "national security" features prominently, and developed countries (regions) are the "main force" of these measures. In 2020, of the 1,179 other restrictive measures issued by 20 countries (regions), subsidies and other forms of support measures accounted for 75.9 percent of the total number of other restrictive measures, reflecting the impact of the epidemic, major countries have issued subsidies and support measures to support their industries and enterprises. The top five most restrictive countries were the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.

Third, measures issued by 20 countries (regions) cover a wide range of products. The measures cover almost all two-size products in Chapter 98 of 22 categories identified by the International Customs Council. Industries that are most affected include electric motors, electrical equipment and its parts, organic chemicals and mechanical equipment, etc. The measures cover a wide range of products, accounting for 99.0% of all 98 two-digit customs codes.

Fourth, the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is still the most active international dispute settlement mechanism in the world, with high participation from the United States, the European Union, China and India. To date, a total of 110 members have been actively involved as parties to disputes or third parties.

In addition, the WTO reform has become the focus of the game between the United States, the European Union and China, and major WTO members have put forward suggestions and proposals on WTO reform. The issue of WTO reform was raised in her first discussions with the UK, the European Union, Canada, Japan and South Korea by the new US Trade Representative Dai Qi.

The Global Economic and Trade Frictions Index is a trend monitoring index compiled by the Legal Advisory Committee on Economic and Trade Frictions of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT). Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, the index aims to reflect the main trends of global economic and trade frictions in a more comprehensive and reasonable way and identify new risks.

2021 trade frictions ccpit counsel will regularly publish the global economic and trade friction index monthly report, strengthen the tracking and research main countries (regions) economic and trade measures, through the index of research trends provide risk early warning for possible economic and trade friction and conflict, to strengthen the analysis of the specific affected industry, maintaining our country industry security and economic security, improve risk insight and trend analysis of service ability, and to the government, the enterprises provide risk early warning and decision support.