"I am a little busy now, the guest is checking the goods, half an hour later and you detailed talk." On August 24, when a securities Daily reporter called a small foreign trade company in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, whose main business is stationery export, xiao Chen (not his real name) was a little tired, but his tone was also happy.
With the continuous recovery of China's foreign trade, it seems to have become the norm for foreign traders to be busy with receiving orders, producing and inspecting goods like Mr. Chen. Last year s exports were about two million dollars, and this year s exports are expected to reach 10 million dollars. The head of a crayfish export enterprise told the Securities Daily reporter.
From the growth of the order volume, the foreign trade industry A is really beautiful. However, shipping prices continue to climb, container "a box is hard to find", also let many foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized export enterprises have to face the logistics is not smooth, high freight industry SIDE B.
About an hour later, Chen gave the reporter a call back. "The overall order situation this year is much better than last year," Chen said, referring to recent business. However, she changed her words, "Currently there is a serious shortage of containers. Since last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, many containers sent to foreign countries can not be returned. As a result, we are having difficulties in shipping. Today a 40HQ container costs at least $15,000. We use FOB transaction and the freight is paid by the customer. Recently, there was an order from Germany. Although the customer ordered the container, he asked to postpone the shipment because he thought it was expensive. In addition, some foreign trade counterparts are to pay their own freight, sometimes a box of goods are not worth a container of freight."
Foreign trade is growing at its fastest pace in a decade
The BDI index hit a new high for the year
Foreign trade has maintained a rapid growth momentum from January to July this year, with a growth rate of 24.5%, the highest in a decade, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said at a press conference held by The State Council on August 23. However, he also pointed out that the current foreign trade enterprises are also facing "four difficulties" - the impact of transport capacity and freight rising, commodity, raw materials rising, the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure, the increase in labor costs. For small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, it is more difficult.
Securities Daily reporter interviewed a number of foreign trade enterprises, they happen to coincide with the biggest difficulties facing the current is the increase in freight rates. "Our company's international logistics costs are all borne by customers, but the current international logistics shortage and high freight rates have caused disruptions to the company and even the entire export industry, and customers may ask for delay in delivery." A machinery and equipment manufacturing listed company staff said to reporters.
Freight price rise has the most direct embodiment on shipping price related index. The Baltic Dry index (BDI), which tracks the spot market, has been rising. Securities Daily reporter query related data shows that since the third quarter, THE lowest BDI was 3039 points on July 16. Since August 6, the BDI has been on a continuous upward trend, reaching 3,371 on that day and reaching 4,092 on August 20. In other words, BDI rose 721 points, or 21.39%, in half a month. That's up 1,053 points, or 34.65%, from the July low. On August 23, it rose further to 4,147, a new high for the year.
In addition, the Shanghai Export Container Index (SCFI) hit a record high of 4,340.18 points, according to the latest export container rate index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on August 20. Compared to the last installment (August 13), it rose 58.65 points, or 1.37%; Compared with last year's low of 818 points, up 430.6%. China's export container Index (CCFI) also hit a record high of 3,047.32. Compared to the previous period of 2978.47 points, up 2.3 percent, compared to last year's low of 834 points, up 265.4 percent.
Mismatch between supply and demand
That led to bottlenecks in transport capacity
"The fundamental reason for the rise in international freight and container prices is the mismatch between supply and demand." Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center at The Suning Institute of Finance, said in an interview with Securities Daily that while international trade is picking up with the global economic recovery, transportation demand is expanding, but the supply of shipping capacity cannot be effectively improved due to repeated global epidemics. At present, some ports are faced with congestion. Quarantine checks have increased the accumulation of containers and goods at ports, which has reduced the efficiency of port dewatering, and caused delays and congestion in subsequent land and inland waterway transport, further reducing transport capacity and exacerbating the fluctuation of freight rates in the short term.
In fact, in the second half of last year, there was already a case of "skyrocketing box," the freight rate increased sharply. Xiang-dong liu, vice-minister of the China international economic and exchange center for economic research on the "securities daily" reporters, unlike last year, this year affected by national economic stimulus policies, demand side, a surge in demand, especially in North America and docking of supply and demand on capacity bottlenecks, namely the logistics supply chain encountered difficulties, combined with the overseas infrastructure ability is limited, Market capacity has not shown signs of growth, actual cargo capacity and transport efficiency have generally declined.
At the same time, with the increase of the number of ships, the congestion of the port is aggravated. In addition, the delay of shipping schedule caused by the congestion causes the freight rate to rise, even exceeding the freight value of low value-added products.
In xiang-dong liu's view, limited capacity to constrained the performance ability of our country's export orders, while to delay the delivery method, but does not fundamentally improve the efficiency of supply chain, therefore need to accelerate port congestion problem, in addition to update and upgrade port infrastructure and supporting facilities, to make full use of digital and information technology means, The automation degree of port operation should be enhanced to solve the problem of port vessel congestion in an orderly manner. In addition, it can also increase the transformation of multiple modes of intermodal transport, the global ports should strengthen the coordination of supply chain linkage, and put forward comprehensive logistics solutions.
Tao Jin also holds the same view, he believes, to strengthen the short - and long-term planning and planning of transport capacity, pay attention to the improvement of port efficiency, so as to enhance transport capacity, to form further support for the recovery of foreign trade.
The timing of peak rates is unknown
Msmes need support from many sources
In the face of freight price rise may lead to the situation of limited operation, some enterprises have been planning ahead of time. Securities Daily reporter noted that listed companies with subsidiaries engaged in cross-border e-commerce industry said in the Shenzhen Exchange interactive Yi response to the question "the impact of the current sea and container price rise on the cross-border sales of subsidiaries" that the operation mode of subsidiaries is mainly domestic warehouse, overseas warehouse and FBA warehouse. In terms of overseas warehouses, since May this year, the shipping price has continued to rise, and in March and April, there were more goods in overseas warehouses, and during May to August, there was less shipping in overseas warehouses, which reduced the impact of rising shipping prices on the company to a certain extent. And FBA warehouse and domestic warehouse to air, dedicated line. Compared with sea freight prices, the increase in air freight prices is smaller and less affected.
The overseas warehouse model of cross-border e-commerce has recently been strongly supported by the policy level. The General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Business Forms and New Modes of Foreign Trade on July 9, 2021, which clarified a series of measures to support the development of cross-border e-commerce and supporting logistics, including: We will improve the policies supporting the development of cross-border e-commerce, promote the construction of comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce, cultivate a number of excellent overseas warehouse enterprises, and improve the overseas warehouse network covering the world.
In response to the difficulties facing foreign trade companies, Mr. Wang said at the news conference that a series of measures would be taken to stabilize market players and orders. On the one hand, we should vigorously promote the development of new forms and models of foreign trade, such as cross-border e-commerce, support the export of high-tech, high-quality and high value-added products, and increase efforts to promote Chinese brands overseas. On the other hand, we must ensure the smooth flow of foreign trade industrial and supply chains. In addition, we need to deepen international economic and trade cooperation.
For this round of rate increases will continue for how long, xiang-dong liu thinks, it depends on the degree of global epidemic prevention and control, "if the global outbreak continue, port congestion and vessel delay problem will continue, thus also need more ports adapted automation tools, solve overseas artificial shortage and a large number of empty container hoarding in the plight of overseas; If the epidemic can be effectively controlled in the short term and the loading and unloading service capacity of the port is improved, it is expected that the increase in freight rates will soon peak."
However, for now, small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises are still facing a large shortage of transport capacity and freight cost rising pressure, resulting in some enterprises facing the "value of goods but the freight rate" difficult situation. In this regard, Liu Xiangdong suggested that, at the policy level, temporary tax incentives and subsidies can be adopted to enhance the ability of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises to resist external risks; At the technical level, we should also make full use of digital technology to speed up the turnover rate of empty containers, solve the problem of empty containers backflow, and use the market mechanism to guide the freight rate to fall gradually.
