In the first half of the year, the economy increased by 2.5%; Import trade can only rely on the second half of the year, and will usher in a massive sprint!

At the press conference of the State Information Office held on the morning of July 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2022: the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 2.5% year-on-year, of which the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.4% year-on-year. 1、 In the second quarter, the economy withstood the pressure and achieved positive growth.
Import and foreign trade agency
Since the first half of this year, the international environment has become more complex and severe, domestic epidemics have occurred frequently, the adverse effects have increased significantly, economic development is extremely unusual, unexpected factors have brought serious impact, and the downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter has increased significantly. Therefore, China's economic performance in the first half of the year has attracted widespread attention.
From the perspective of the whole year, with the joint efforts of all parties, it is not easy for the economy to maintain positive growth in the second quarter. China's economy has a strong operation and sufficient potential, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. Although there are still some unstable and uncertain factors, with the effective overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and the continuous performance of economic and social development, the macro policy effect is further released, the domestic production demand is gradually recovering, and all regions seriously implement the package of policies and measures of the State Council to stabilize the economy, As well as the orderly resumption of production and production of key industrial chains and key enterprises, we have reason to believe that the import and export will maintain a stable growth in the second half of the year, especially in the field of imported agricultural products and food, and its steady climbing growth trend has emerged.
Recently, the Information Office of the State Council held a number of press conferences. The national development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of customs, the National Bureau of statistics and other departments came on stage to introduce China's import and export and economic operation in the first half of the year.
1、 854 measures of the General Administration of Customs to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade
According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 19.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; Imports reached 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.
Since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the spirit of the central economic work conference, the spirit of the national teleconference on stabilizing the economic market, and the work deployment of the State Council to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade, the General Administration of Customs has specially issued ten measures to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade and several measures to further help enterprises rescue and reduce costs. Local customs have also put forward 854 detailed support measures in combination with the actual situation of customs areas and the demands of enterprises to fully support the steady growth of foreign trade. The main measures are as follows:
First, ensure smooth logistics. Promote the pilot projects of "direct delivery of imported goods at the ship's side" and "direct loading of exported goods at the port" nationwide; On the basis of the pilot projects carried out by Shanghai and Chongqing customs, the "confirmation of departure" mode was newly promoted in Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo and other customs. Carry out the monitoring of the whole process of vaccine customs clearance, verify the application materials of enterprises in advance, and realize the "zero opening" and "zero waiting" of covid-19 vaccine. Set up a "green channel" for the import and export of fresh, perishable agricultural and food products at the national customs.
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Second, promote the stability of the industrial chain supply chain. Do a good job in ensuring the customs clearance of "white list" enterprises in the supply chain of key industrial chains. Promote the facilitation of grain import and diversification of sources, and complete the signing of protocols on quarantine requirements for Myanmar corn, Malawi soybeans, Brazil corn and peanuts exported to China. Promote the export of high-quality agricultural products from RCEP member countries to China. Boost the import of bulk commodities such as iron ore and cotton, and ensure domestic supply.
Third, take multiple measures to stabilize market players. In the first half of the year, 73700 overseas production enterprises of imported food were registered in China; Reduce the filing time limit for export food production enterprises, with 23500 filing enterprises; We accelerated the review of Customs Protection filing applications for intellectual property rights, with 10700 new filings, an increase of 58% year-on-year; The domestic processing trade goods of enterprises are temporarily exempted from the interest of domestic sales tax deferment, benefiting 14600 enterprises.
Fourth, continue to optimize the port business environment. A five month special action to promote cross-border trade facilitation was launched in 10 cities in 8 provinces and cities across the country, and 10 facilitation measures were launched jointly with relevant national departments. We will deepen the construction of a "single window" for international trade and consolidate the effectiveness of reducing the overall customs clearance time. We implemented the reform of "release, management and service" and guided more than 90000 enterprises to handle the filing of customs declaration units in the way of "multiple certificates in one". Promote the integration reform of all business areas, and further improve the level of trade facilitation.
2、 Summer grain harvest, agricultural products production and marketing boom
In the first half of 2022, the added value of national agriculture (planting) increased by 4.5% year-on-year. The total output of summer grain in China was 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1.434 million tons or 1.0% over the previous year, hitting a new record. The agricultural planting structure continued to be optimized, and the sown area of economic crops such as rapeseed increased.
In the first half of the year, the output of pork, beef, sheep and poultry was 45.19 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, of which the output of pork, beef and mutton increased by 8.2%, 3.8% and 0.7% respectively, and the output of poultry decreased by 0.8%; Milk production increased by 8.4%, and poultry egg production increased by 3.5%. In the second quarter, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, of which pork increased by 2.4%. At the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs was 430.57 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, including 42.77 million breeding sows; 365.87 million pigs were sold, an increase of 8.4%.
According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2022, China's total import and export of agricultural products reached 161.68 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports amounted to US $47.14 billion, an increase of 22.8% year on year; Imports amounted to 114.54 billion US dollars, an increase of 6% year-on-year; The trade deficit was US $67.39 billion, 3.3% smaller than the same period last year.
In June, China's total import and export of agricultural products amounted to 28.76 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 8.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 24% year-on-year; Imports amounted to 20.34 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year; The trade deficit was US $11.92 billion, down 11.4% from the same period last year.
The import of key agricultural products is as follows:
Meat (including sundries): the cumulative import volume was 3.456 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%, and the import amount was US $13.97 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%.
Dried and fresh fruits and nuts: the cumulative import volume was 4.372 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the import amount was 9.28 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.
Grain: the cumulative import volume was 79.782 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the import amount was US $42.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Among them, the cumulative import of soybeans was 46.284 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the import amount was US $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%.
Edible vegetable oil: the cumulative import volume was 1.881 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 67.5%, and the import amount was 2.96 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 48.1%.
The export of key agricultural products is as follows:
Aquatic products: the cumulative export volume was 1.781 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the export amount was US $11.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%.
Grain: the cumulative export volume was 1.376 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and the export amount was US $840million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%.
3、 The rise of pork price has limited impact on the overall increase of CPI
Since the beginning of this year, international inflationary pressure has increased as a whole, and domestic concerns about price stability have also increased. Since the beginning of this year, with the gradual recovery of domestic market demand and the influence of international import factors, the year-on-year increase of CPI has continued to expand, but it has generally maintained a moderate increase.
In the first half of the year, CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, of which food prices fell by 0.4% and non food prices rose by 2.2%. In the second quarter, CPI growth was generally stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Among them, food prices entered the rising range in the second quarter, with an increase of 2.3%, and fell by 3.1% in the first quarter. It is mainly affected by the expansion of the price increase of fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, eggs and grain and the narrowing of the decline of pork prices. Among them, pork prices fell by 21.3% in the second quarter, a decrease of 20.5 percentage points narrower than that in the first quarter.
As for whether the rising pork price will affect the overall increase of CPI, the overall impact is limited. At present, the production capacity of pigs has generally returned to the normal level, and the price does not have the basis for a sharp rise. In the early stage, large pigs will be released successively, which is conducive to increasing the supply of pork. In addition, relevant departments will strengthen market regulation and stabilize the relationship between supply and demand, which will promote the stable operation of prices.
In the next stage, after entering the flood season, the supply of fresh commodities in some regions may be affected to a certain extent, and the impact of international import factors may continue. However, the supply capacity of China's goods and services is generally abundant, the market is strengthening its efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the key role of investment in stabilizing growth is expected to increase. As for the foreign trade situation we are concerned about, we believe that as the epidemic prevention and control situation improves, the offline consumption scene gradually recovers, and with the promotion of consumption policies, consumption is expected to continue to recover. China's foreign trade import and export has strong resilience. At present, the port logistics continues to be promoted, the import and export of the Yangtze River Delta and other regions recover rapidly, the port business environment continues to be optimized, and the stability and quality of foreign trade have a good foundation.