The recovery is weak. Where is the Japanese economy looking for opportunities

According to the preliminary balance of payments statistics released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on the 8th, Japan's current account surplus plunged in the first half of the year, hitting the lowest level in the same period since 2014, due to the deterioration of Japan's trade balance due to the rise in the price of crude oil and other imported commodities and the sharp depreciation of the yen.
According to a report by the Japan Broadcasting Association on August 10, 1486 cases of novel coronavirus collective infection occurred in Japan in the past week as of August 7, up 12% from the previous week and also a record high.
Under the combined pressure of multiple factors such as the rise in commodity prices, the depreciation of the Japanese yen, and the drag of the epidemic, Japan's economic growth is weak and difficult.
Gloomy data, reflecting economic internal injury
Statistics show that Japan's current account surplus in the first half of the year was 3.5057 trillion yen (about 175.636 billion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 6.0021 trillion yen. Among them, in terms of trade in goods, the trade balance has changed from a surplus of the same period last year to a deficit, with a deficit of 5.6688 trillion yen; In service trade, the trade deficit continued to expand, reaching 2.4947 trillion yen. This has turned the overall trade balance including goods and services from a surplus in the same period last year to a deficit of 8.1634 trillion yen.
In the first half of the year, benefiting from the depreciation of the Japanese yen and other reasons, Japan's overseas investment income increased by 2.3563 trillion yen to 12.8728 trillion yen year on year. Relevant reports show that under the situation of huge deficits in both goods trade and service trade, the growth of overseas investment income is the main reason why Japan can maintain its current account surplus. However, it is obviously difficult to rely on overseas investment income alone.
Disasters do not come singly. The COVID-19 epidemic is still beating the drums. In addition to the high epidemic in the first week of August, according to the statistics of Fuji TV, as of 17:15 local time on August 10, 250379 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan exceeded 250000 for the first time, breaking the previous high of 249772 cases on August 3.
Superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, Japan's economic recovery is indeed worrying. According to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the first quarter of 2022 released by the Cabinet Office of Japan, the real GDP after excluding the price change factor decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, and the annual rate was reduced by 0.5%. This is the third quarter of last year, when the Japanese economy fell again. At present, Japan's economic data for the second quarter has not been released. Although many economic institutions predict that Japan's real GDP growth rate in the second quarter will change from negative to positive, Japanese media analysis generally believes that it is undeniable that Japan's economic recovery is still facing a severe test when the complex external situation such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic situation is still not completely improved.
Insufficient kinetic energy, stabilizing the chain in the region
As far as Japan is concerned, the lack of recovery power restricts the further development of the Japanese economy.
The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has repeatedly stressed that energy is still the main factor driving up inflation. If energy and fresh food are not considered, Japan's inflation index is actually less than 2%, and the central bank will continue to adhere to the 2% inflation target.
The relevant survey results released by the Bank of Japan show that in the second quarter of this year, the confidence index of Japan's large manufacturing enterprises continued to decline, and the decline was even larger than before. At the same time, the increase of bankrupt enterprises in Japan will also adversely affect the economic recovery.
According to a report of the Tokyo Commercial and industrial survey, in the first half of the year, there were 3060 bankrupt enterprises in Japan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.52%. The total liabilities of bankrupt enterprises exceeded 170 billion yen, with a year-on-year increase of 180%. Since April, the number of bankrupt enterprises in Japan has exceeded the same period last year for three consecutive months.
According to the data of the Japanese cabinet office at the end of July, the real GDP growth rate of Japan in 2022 is expected to be 2.0%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the expectation decided by the cabinet meeting in January. The Bank of Japan has lowered this expectation to 2.4%. The International Monetary Fund is even more pessimistic. In its latest world economic outlook, it lowered Japan's growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 1.7%.
Wu Huaizhong, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Japan studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that with the entry into force of RCEP in January this year and the gradual recovery of the economies of the countries in the region under the epidemic, the cooperation in the East Asian industrial chain and supply chain is expected to be further deepened, and the economic activities in the region will be more active. This is a rare opportunity for Japan to alleviate its real economic difficulties and improve its economic structure. Therefore, actively creating a peaceful and stable environment for development, straightening out the current priorities of governance, especially paying attention to the improvement of the trade system and the construction of an open economic system, avoiding the interference of non economic factors, abandoning the closed and exclusive small circle doctrine, maintaining the steady development of the regional industrial chain and supply chain, and creating more development opportunities for domestic enterprises are the directions that the Japanese government must strive for in the future.