According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 24, China's total import and export value in September was 560.77 billion US dollars, up 3.4% year on year. Among them, exports increased by 5.7% year on year, imports increased by 0.3% year on year, and the trade surplus was USD 84.74 billion, an increase of 24.5%.
Export and foreign trade agency
Export growth continued to fall, but better than expected
In terms of export, in September, the export was 322.76 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, expected to be 4%. The previous value was 7.1%, down 1.4 percentage points. Although the growth rate continued to decline, it was better than the market expectation.
In September, ASEAN ranked first among China's export economies, with an export volume of 52.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 16.19%; The second is the United States, with the export volume of 50.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 15.73%; The third is the EU, with an export volume of 47 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.55%; The fourth is Japan, with exports of 15.2 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.72%; The fifth is South Korea, with an export volume of 13.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.2%.
It is worth noting that China's exports to ASEAN increased by 29.5% year on year, with a previous value of 25.1%, up 4.4 percentage points. On the one hand, this is due to the high growth rate of economic growth of major ASEAN countries, and on the other hand, it is due to the continuous deepening of economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN, which has driven the strong import demand of ASEAN to China.
Among the major export commodities, the largest export amount was mechanical and electrical products, which amounted to USD 190.67 billion, accounting for 59.1%, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components amounted to US $19.75 billion, mobile phones to US $17.21 billion, centralized circuits to US $14.21 billion, household appliances to US $7.29 billion, auto parts to US $6.86 billion, and automobiles (including chassis) to US $6.34 billion.
The demand of European and American countries is not optimistic
Professional analysts believe that China's exports continued to slow down in September, mainly due to the base effect, slowing overseas demand and the decline of high price factors. Among them, from the perspective of external demand, the growth rate of exports to developed economies such as Europe and the United States fell back in an all-round way due to interest rate hikes, economic slowdown and shrinking demand by major central banks around the world for many times during the year, especially the decline in the growth rate of exports to the United States continued to expand. The year-on-year growth rate in September was -11.6%, and the previous value was - 3.8%.
The reality is also true. The traditional peak season at the end of the year is approaching, but the demand of Europe, America and other countries is not optimistic!
The United States: greatly promote the inventory overstock of retailers in advance
In the first half of this year, American importers made a large number of purchases because they were worried about the supply chain problems such as the strike of American and Western dockers, resulting in excessive inventory. At present, American retailers are on a discount binge, hoping to clean up their warehouses to accommodate a new round of winter orders.
Many Americans also choose to purchase New Year's goods in advance, but the reason is inflation. According to the survey, 37% of American consumers decided to purchase ahead of the winter holiday this year, mainly because they avoided the possibility of commodity prices rising at the end of the year.
The insiders pointed out that the sales situation before Christmas in the United States would be a major node. If we can digest it almost before Christmas, the subsequent orders would increase significantly. If not, the trade recovery may wait until next year.
Germany: Consumer confidence index drops to a new record low
On October 24 (Monday), according to the data released by S&P Global, the initial comprehensive PMI of Germany in October fell to 44.1 from 45.7 in September, significantly lower than the expected 45.5, the lowest level since May 2020. Relevant surveys show that German enterprises are "extremely pessimistic" about the outlook for the next year.
Recently, German market research institute Geoff&Case also released the consumer confidence index in October. The data shows that the significant decline in purchasing power has led to the index dropping to a new historical low, from - 36.8 in September to - 42.5, much lower than the previous estimate of - 38.5
Looking ahead, analysts expect that the downward pressure on exports will increase in the fourth quarter, but it is still resilient. First, the pressure of global economic slowdown has increased, and the support of foreign demand for exports has weakened; Second, affected by the high base and weak international commodity prices, it is expected that the growth rate of export prices will slow down; Third, in the context of high global inflation and slowing supply recovery, domestic costs and industrial chain advantages will form a certain support for export shares.
