Experts from foreign think tanks: China's economic situation will improve in 2023

Dan Steinbok, director of the International Trade Research Office of the India-US Institute, a US think-tank, wrote in China Daily on January 9 that China is expected to be committed to promoting economic growth in 2023, which means that it will further deepen reform and expand opening up.
China's economic situation is improving
According to the analysis of the article, in 2023, China will respond to the growth challenges with a new development pattern of "double cycle". The international cycle will promote the development of regional and international trade and investment, while the domestic cycle is committed to accelerating domestic demand.
In the context of further optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the Chinese government will take various effective measures to promote consumption. This move is intended to increase the income of urban and rural residents, thereby promoting the development of the real estate industry, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and improving elderly care services.
At present, the supply side has a strong momentum, especially in the field of infrastructure investment. China's relevant departments have introduced a series of measures to promote investment, especially encouraging private capital to invest in large national projects such as energy, water conservancy, transportation and data centers.
In general, China's fiscal policy is targeted, and its monetary policy may maintain a sound tone. Next, the epidemic prevention and control, the technology industry and the real estate market are expected to continue to improve.
At present, China is further optimizing the epidemic prevention and control policy. The faster China responds to the typical short-term response and interference during the transition period, the faster it can resume its growth momentum. In 2023, China's economic development is expected to surpass many other emerging economies.
In the field of science and technology, Chinese policy makers intensified their efforts last year to promote competitiveness with a more rapid momentum. These effective measures will enhance the core competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises and cultivate more "small giant" enterprises. In Germany, small and medium-sized enterprises have shown their resilience in the period of rapid economic change. Small and medium-sized enterprises do not have the capital advantages of large enterprises, but in the long run, they can provide broader employment opportunities.
China's real estate market is also expected to usher in a turnaround. The Chinese government recently launched a series of support measures to help the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. In 2022, real estate sales fell by about 25%. In 2023, this figure may be 5% to 10%.
Over time, developers with more guaranteed quality will gradually grow. S&P Global Rating believes that China's real estate market will become more stable as the leading position of state-owned developers increases.
The United States and the West are dwarfed
The article points out that in recent years, the United States has continuously intensified its "big country competition" with China. What the United States has done is not conducive to improving economic efficiency. It provokes disputes and causes turbulence only to weaken China, and it does not hesitate to sacrifice the social welfare of the United States and the interests of large enterprises. The U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China are a typical example, which has dealt a heavy blow to the industry giants in the United States, South Korea and Taiwan, China.
In sharp contrast to the United States, China opposes trade protectionism and geopolitical expansion. For China, the core of the international cycle is to promote global economic cooperation and development. China is committed to promoting trade and investment, especially with the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP). From January to November last year, China's total imports and exports with other members of RCEP accounted for 30.7% of China's total imports and exports.
Against the background of rampant western trade protectionism, China's "the Belt and Road" initiative will still promote the economic recovery and steady development of Southeast Asia. From South Asia to the Middle East and Africa, the "the Belt and Road" project is steadily advancing. With the increase of relevant consumption, the use of RMB in trade groups such as RCEP will also increase steadily.
Looking around the world, the risk of economic recession has cast a shadow over the United States, which is deeply in the dilemma of polarization. At the same time, the euro zone is getting deeper and deeper in the recession, the Japanese economy is shrinking, and the UK is struggling to cope with the plight of lower living standards. Policymakers in these countries want to increase the defense budget when the economy is unable to afford it, which is undoubtedly self-destruction.
The West is self-inclosed and engaged in protectionism, while China will continue to deepen reform and opening up and promote high-quality development, as is the case with most other emerging and developing economies. Without peace and stability, development will be unsustainable.