In 2023, the world is full of expectations for China's economy

With the continuous optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, China's economic recovery momentum is strong, which has greatly boosted confidence in global economic growth.
Recently, many international investment institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have raised their forecasts of China's economic growth in 2023. Many foreign business associations in China, such as the American Chamber of Commerce of China, the British Chamber of Commerce and the German Chamber of Commerce, believe that China's adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will help restore the exchange of Chinese and foreign personnel and business travel, and restore market optimism. China will continue to become a priority destination for foreign investment. Experts believe that in 2023, with the gradual recovery of demand and the superposition of policy effects, China's economic and social vitality will be further released and will continue to become the "stabilizer" and "engine" of the world economy towards recovery.
Positive growth prospects
Various regions have signed and started major projects, competed for charter flights to "go to sea" to grab orders, and the catering and tourism market has gradually warmed up... International investors have seen new opportunities in China, and foreign media have captured positive signals of China's economic development.
"Against the background of the possible slowdown in the global economy, China's economic recovery may emerge." The US Institutional Investor magazine published a signed article saying that with the relevant policy adjustments, China may become a "safe haven" for investors.
According to the website of Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, several investment banks have successively raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year. JPMorgan Chase rose from 4% to 4.3%, Goldman Sachs rose from 4.8% to 5.2%, and the most optimistic Morgan Stanley predicted that China's economy would grow by 5.7% this year.
According to a survey conducted by Reuters based on interviews with 49 economists, China's economic growth may rebound to 4.9% in 2023. Wang Tao, chief China economist of UBS, was quoted as saying that China's economic activity and consumption are expected to rebound strongly after March and April this year.
Citibank analysts were quoted by the Financial Times as predicting that China's total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 11% to 50 trillion yuan in 2023. Investors and analysts therefore predict that "the next year will be brighter".
According to an article published by Fortune magazine, BlackRock, an internationally renowned asset management company, also released a research report, predicting that China's GDP growth may reach 6% in 2023, which will "dampen" the global economic slowdown.
According to a recent report by CNN, several key provinces in China have put forward growth targets for 2023, many of which are set at more than 5%, thus providing the first batch of clues for the development path of China's economy in 2023. According to the report, China's policy makers have adjusted the measures for the technology industry and the real estate industry. These signs have boosted the confidence of investors and analysts, who believe that China's economy will rebound significantly in 2023.
The latest issue of the World Bank's China Economic Briefing believes that with the deterioration of global demand growth, the total demand structure of the Chinese economy is expected to gradually shift to domestic demand. With the improvement of consumer confidence and the release of consumer demand, China's consumption will gradually recover; Continued infrastructure investment expenditure and investor sentiment will also promote the recovery of investment growth.
Strong development momentum
In 2022, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 120 trillion yuan, an increase of 3% over 2021; The total import and export value of goods trade was 42.07 trillion yuan, up 7.7% from 2021; The balance of foreign exchange reserves at the end of the year was 3127.7 billion US dollars, ranking the first in the world... In the past year, China has withstood the pressure and achieved overall stability in economic operation.
"The achievements did not come easily." Ni Jianjun, deputy director of the World Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with our reporter that since 2022, in the face of repeated shocks from multiple unexpected factors such as epidemic outbreaks and extreme high temperature weather, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the development environment have increased, China's GDP has increased by 3%, and the economy has slowed down but not stalled. The continuous improvement of the economic aggregate and per capita level means that China's comprehensive national strength, social productivity, international influence and people's living standards are further improved. China has a stronger foundation for development, a better quality of development, and a more powerful driving force for development. The fundamentals of China's strong economy, great potential, broad space and long-term improvement have not changed.
Xu Xiujun, Secretary-General of the Emerging Economies Research Association and researcher of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that, as the largest developing country with a population of more than 1.4 billion and the world's second largest economy, in the past 10 years, we have focused on doing our own things well, laying a solid foundation for coping with various risks and challenges, winning the initiative, winning the advantages and winning the future.
Since the beginning of the year, China has continued to take strong steps in promoting high-level opening up. On January 1, the Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2022 Edition) was officially implemented. The number of entries added in the new catalogue was the largest in recent years. 1020 commodities were subject to provisional import tariff rates lower than the MFN tariff rate. From July 1 this year, China will also implement the eighth step of tax reduction on the most favored nation tax rate of 62 information technology products. After the adjustment, China's total tariff level will drop from 7.4% to 7.3%. These measures fully reflect China's firm will to continue to promote opening-up and share development opportunities with all parties.
"In order to let the world better share the achievements and opportunities of China's development, in recent years, China has built a number of high-level and high-quality import promotion platforms." Xu Xiujun said that the construction and development of platforms such as the China International Import Expo and the China International Consumer Goods Expo have provided a strong guarantee for sharing China's market opportunities with the world and promoting the recovery of the world economy.
China's continued promotion of high-quality economic development is also an important reason for the international community's optimistic growth prospects.
The Economist of Spain reported that China is increasing investment in the digital economy and green economy, stepping up its layout, and actively promoting green and low-carbon transformation in the steel and energy industries. The report quoted data from CICC as saying that China's cumulative investment in the digital economy is expected to increase several times in the next five years.
"People work hard and spring comes early." Ni Jianjun said that multiple factors will promote China's economy to resume strong growth, one of the important reasons is that the government has actively introduced measures to stimulate market vitality and boost consumer confidence. From the experience of countries around the world, after the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, consumer enthusiasm will soon return. With the in-depth implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, the leading role of new drivers in China's economy has become increasingly prominent.
Boost global confidence
On January 10, the World Bank released the latest Global Economic Outlook report, which lowered the global economic growth forecast in 2023 to 1.7%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the forecast in June last year, the third lowest level in nearly 30 years. The report points out that the global economic growth is rapidly slowing to "dangerously close to recession" due to high inflation, rising interest rates, reduced investment, the crisis in Ukraine and other factors.
On January 16, the World Economic Forum released the Chief Economist Outlook report, which pointed out that nearly two thirds of the chief economists interviewed predicted that the world economy was expected to decline in 2023.
In a gloomy voice, the world has high hopes for China's economy.
Pei Deming, Director of the Economic Department of the Representative Office of the Asian Development Bank in China, believes that although the external environment will bring pressure to the Chinese economy in 2023, China has enough policy support space to support residents' consumption and real estate investment through fiscal and monetary policies. "The tools in the policy toolbox are sufficient. The key is to coordinate relevant policies."
The website of Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported that in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, China became the only major economy to maintain positive growth. With the economic downturn in Europe and the United States this year, China's economy is expected to take the lead again and shoulder the important task of promoting global economic growth.
Julia Simpson, President and CEO of the World Tourism and Travel Council, said that Chinese tourists would inject momentum into the global tourism recovery. Borg Brend, President of the World Economic Forum, said that China's optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will drive the growth of industrial output, investment, tourism and other service industries. As the world's second largest economy, China's opening up contributes to global economic growth.
Chen Guangyan, an economics professor at Nanyang University of Technology, pointed out that among the "three carriages" driving the global economy, only China is expected to accelerate. "Although China's economic recovery still faces multiple risks, its growth potential cannot be ignored.
"China's development cannot be separated from the world, and the world's development also needs China. A sound Chinese economy is increasingly important to the world." Xu Xiujun said that China, which is more open and confident, is more confident and open, and will create more opportunities for the world with its own development. It will promote the overall progress of mankind with Chinese path to modernization, bring new opportunities to the world with China's new development, and provide more stability and certainty for the turbulent world.
"At present, in the face of the severe and complex situation of the world economy, the risks and challenges that China needs to deal with and the contradictions and problems that need to be solved in its development are more complex than before, but the Chinese economy still has the ability to withstand the pressure and continue to resume development." Ni Jianjun said that China will fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development, We should better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better coordinate development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, vigorously boost market confidence, organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, highlight the work of stabilizing growth, employment and commodity prices, effectively prevent and resolve major risks, promote the overall improvement of economic operation, and achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity, It will make a good start for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and inject more new impetus into the world economy.