The first container liner on the Arctic route between the two countries has been launched, increasing the transportation "artery" of China Russia trade

The Russian representative of Xinxin Shipping Company stated that in order to achieve weekly operation of container cargo ships on the China Russia Arctic route, Xinxin Shipping has invested five high ice class container cargo ships. It is expected that the route will be able to operate from July until the end of October, subject to weather and other conditions.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 8th, the trade volume between Russia and China in the first seven months of 2023 increased by 36.5% compared to the same period in 2022, exceeding $134.1 billion. Previously, the two governments agreed to increase the bilateral trade volume to $200 billion in 2024. Russian experts predict that, considering current trends, the trade volume in 2023 may significantly exceed the established target.
The head of the analysis department at Amarkets in Russia, Arjom Teryev, stated that the rapid growth in trade volume between China and Russia is foreseeable. At present, many Chinese companies are actively developing in the Russian market, while Western companies have reduced their market share. This trend is reflected in bilateral trade. Chinese companies supply equipment, electronic products, clothing, and consumer goods to Russia. At the same time, Russia is increasing its sales of energy, food, metals, and wood to China. Vladimir Ilychev, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia, stated that in the foreseeable future, the trade target between China and Russia may be set at $300 billion.
The Russian Communist Youth League Pravda previously quoted Russian Presidential Assistant Igor Levitin as saying that the maximum transportation volume of the Siberian railway is about 220 million tons, and the recent cargo volume has reached 80 million tons. The Arctic route will become a new transportation "artery".
Maritime transportation has always been an important mode of cargo transportation between China and Russia. On the 8th, Russia's investim website reported that various goods, including containers, oil, natural gas, coal, and other goods, are transported by sea between China and Russia. A key route currently in operation is the "Pacific Corridor" connecting ports on the east coast of China and ports on the Pacific coast of Russia. This route is mainly used for transporting bulk commodities such as oil, coal, and iron ore.

Russian experts analyze that there is still enormous development potential for maritime transportation between China and Russia in the future, and the opening of new routes is beneficial for both Russia and China. Compared to previous routes, the Arctic route has lower costs and to some extent avoids geopolitical interference with shipping.

An increasingly important route
Xu Kai, Chief Information Officer of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, told Global Times on the 11th that there are currently three areas of focus for cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic route. Firstly, the cooperation between the two sides will increase the number of icebreaker construction orders for China's shipbuilding industry and enhance the scale of China's polar navigation capacity; Secondly, the huge potential for trade growth between the two sides is beneficial for the development of maritime transportation; The third reason is that the temperature is high this summer and the Arctic route has been open for a long time. Xu Kai also stated that ships traveling on the Arctic route require crew members with a certain level of ice breaking and special experience, which is more expensive for bulk cargo ships. Compared to container liners and special transport ships, they are more economical and sustainable, making them more suitable for the Arctic route.
According to Russian media reports, there was news a few years ago that Russia and China would open an Arctic route. The Russian side intends to build it into the "Ice Silk Road", and the opening of the container ship Arctic route now marks that this intention is increasingly becoming a reality. Starting from Shanghai, crossing the Bering Strait, passing through the Arctic Ocean to Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and finally arriving at St. Petersburg, this route has a total length of approximately 8000 nautical miles. It takes 20 days for container cargo ships to complete the route. The traditional route through the Suez Canal has a total length of over 10000 nautical miles, and even without congestion along the way, it takes 36 days to complete smoothly.
According to the "Polar Climate Change Annual Report" released by the China Meteorological Administration this month. Over the past 40 years, the warming rate in the Arctic has been 3.7 times that of the same period globally; In 2022, the overall average temperature in the Arctic is 1.1 ℃ higher than usual. Under the influence of global warming, the navigation time of the Arctic Ocean will become longer and longer. At present, it is navigable for 3-4 months per year, and in the future, it may take 6 months or more. However, to ensure that the Arctic route can transport a large amount of goods, even during the navigation season, a fleet capable of operating in harsh Arctic environments is needed. At present, Russia has formulated a new plan to build a fleet of icebreakers and high-class transport ships, and will build over 150 transport ships in the future.
According to an article published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta on August 7, the development of the Arctic route is one of Russia's largest modernization projects, which opens up new opportunities for the transportation of Russian oil, natural gas and other minerals and the development of the Arctic region. According to the "Northern Route Development Plan" formulated by Russia, it is expected that the freight volume along the Arctic route will reach 36 million tons this year.
According to the report, the cargo volume of the Arctic route in 2022 has exceeded the original plan of 32 million tons by 2.1 million tons. In 2024, the freight volume will achieve a real breakthrough, reaching 80 million tons. According to the Russian government's plan, the freight volume along the Arctic route will increase to 150 million tons by 2030.
In the past decade, the freight volume of Arctic routes has significantly increased. In 2014, this route only transported 4 million tons of goods, compared to 34.1 million tons in 2022. The rapid growth of cargo volume on the Arctic route is mainly due to the growth of natural gas and mineral resource extraction in the Russian Arctic region. The goods transported on the Arctic route are mainly energy products and industrial commodities.
According to data from the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the Arctic route transported 20.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas and condensate, 7.2 million tons of oil and petroleum products, 295000 tons of coal, and 43500 tons of concentrate.
In addition to the transportation of energy and mineral products, other non bulk commodity transportation is also a key focus for Russia to develop Arctic routes. Vasily Nikulenkov, Director of the North and Arctic Research Institute at the Federal University of Siberia in Russia, stated that the Arctic route will also be used for transporting food, industrial products, as well as developing technical equipment and building materials for the Arctic. It can also be used to export Russian products to the markets of China, South Korea, and India.
More attention after the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's exports have been comprehensively blocked due to the impact of Western sanctions. In particular, last year the West imposed sanctions on Russia's oil, coal and other energy exports. The Arctic route has become an important alternative route for Russia's commodity exports. Against the backdrop of Russia's comprehensive promotion of the Arctic development strategy and acceleration of the eastward shift in exports, the status and role of the Arctic route have become more prominent.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that the development of Arctic routes will bring a lot of additional income to Russia. It is expected that by 2035, the tax revenue of projects along the Arctic route will greatly increase, and the supply efficiency of the northern region of Russia will also be improved. Rustam Romanenkov, Deputy Director of the Russian Arctic Initiative Center, stated that the primary task of the Arctic route is to establish an independent and secure trade route between East and West. The second is to provide stable budget revenue for Russia and promote the development of related industries such as shipbuilding and nuclear energy. The third is to promote the development of the northern region and improve the lives of the indigenous people in the region. In August 2022, the Russian government approved the "Northern Route Development Plan before 2035", which formulated over 150 measures related to the construction of freight bases, development of transportation infrastructure, and fleet. In the same year, Russia opened a regular route between Murmansk and the Kamchatka Peninsula and provided tax subsidies for it. This year, Russia will open three more routes, increasing the number of ports along the route from 4 to 11, and extending the route to Vladivostok.