China Laos Railway is a model joint venture project of "the Belt and Road"

As an important project for the strategic docking of China's "the Belt and Road" initiative and Laos' "land locked country" to "land linked country" strategy, the China Laos Railway connects Kunming, Yunnan Province, China, and Vientiane, Laos, with a total length of 1035 kilometers. It is the first international railway invested and constructed mainly by China, with the whole line adopting Chinese technical standards, using Chinese equipment, and directly connected to the Chinese railway network. Since its opening in December 2021, the China Laos Railway has sent more than 19 million passengers and more than 23 million tons of goods, injecting new vitality into closer economic and trade relations between the two countries and people to people exchanges.
It is worth noting that the maximum speed of the China Laos Railway is 160 km/h, while the speed of cargo transportation is limited to 120 km/h, which does not meet the minimum standard of 200 km/h high-speed railway. Why the China Laos Railway was not built into a high-speed railway has once become a hot topic of concern. In my opinion, this is mainly determined by the geographical factors, American factors and Laos economic conditions along the China Laos railway.
Since the opening of the China Laos Railway in 2021, some western countries have continued to hype the "debt risk" problem of the China Laos Railway and the theory of China threat. However, little is known that the China Laos railway project was not actually promoted by China, but the Lao government took the initiative to propose and strive for the Chinese government. Laos is eager to build the China Laos railway. As the former Vice Premier of Laos, Songshawar Lingshawar, emphasized in an interview, "The China Laos railway is not China's intention, but Laos's intention. China has always been committed to studying how to make Laos borrow less and improve the cost performance ratio of the China Laos railway to Laos." In this context, the China Laos railway is built through the cooperation of the Chinese government, the Lao government, and the state-owned enterprises of China and Laos. After reviewing the public data and literature, we found that the Laos government actively proposed to China to build the China Laos railway, mainly for the following reasons.

Firstly, China has obvious advantages in infrastructure construction. China is currently the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories listed in the United Nations Industrial Classification, with a complete industrial chain of infrastructure, mature construction technology that reaches world-class levels, affordable and high-quality, and superior cost control capabilities compared to other countries, thus possessing a high competitive advantage. More importantly, China is also more willing to invest in the long term. Investing in large-scale construction projects such as railways has the characteristics of large investment, long construction cycles, and high risk of capital backflow, which has deterred many Western countries. However, China is willing to invest in long-term projects with foresight, especially in developing countries and poor areas with urgent infrastructure needs.

Secondly, Laos urgently needs to improve its infrastructure. Laos is the only landlocked country in Southeast Asia. To transform the "land locked country" into a "land linked country", it is necessary to build a north-south railway, connecting China to the north and more developed Southeast Asian countries to the south. Laos is listed as one of the least developed countries by the United Nations, and its fragile infrastructure is the most important factor restricting its economic development. Due to the mountainous terrain and inconvenient transportation in Laos, the road density (per square kilometer of road area) is 30% lower than the average level of ASEAN countries. In addition, most roads in Laos have poor conditions and are easily affected by climate, with frequent seasonal closures. Therefore, the transportation price per ton per kilometer of goods in Laos is approximately twice that of other ASEAN countries. Laos needs to build China Laos railway to improve infrastructure, reduce transport costs and promote economic development.
Thirdly, Laos hopes to obtain the status of a regional center country. Geographically, although Laos is located in the middle of the Indochina Peninsula, it has never achieved the status of a central country in terms of politics and economy. In this regard, the Lao government believes that the construction of the China Laos railway can not only connect China, but also become an important part of the future railway network midline channel between China, Indochina Peninsula, Malay Peninsula and Singapore, so that Laos will become the central hub of connectivity between China and other ASEAN neighbors, and thus effectively enhance Laos' political and economic and trade status in ASEAN countries.
Based on the above strategic considerations, the Lao government proposed to the Chinese government to build the China Laos railway, and the two governments signed the Agreement on Cooperation and Development of Railway Infrastructure between China and Laos and Cooperation on China Laos Railway Projects in November 2015. The Lao government borrowed US $630 million from China as the starting fund for the China Laos railway project. The total investment for the project construction is about 37.4 billion yuan, and the Chinese government, state-owned enterprises, the Lao government and state-owned enterprises will contribute at the investment ratio of 7:3. What is unknown is that the China Laos Railway was once designed as a high-speed railway.
At first, the Lao government hoped that the high-speed railway could be built in one step. Therefore, the designed speed of the China Laos railway reached the minimum standard of 200 km/h. However, during the construction of the China Laos Railway, based on practical considerations, the design speed of the railway was finally decided to be 160 km/h.
First of all, the area along the China Laos Railway is known as the "Geological Museum". The geological structure is complex. Most of the areas along the railway are mountains and plateaus, and the terrain is undulating. At this stage, it is not suitable for the construction of high-speed railway.
Secondly, during the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1973, the US military conducted a total of 580000 bombings in Laos, dropping over 2 million tons of bombs, equivalent to Laos being bombed every 8 minutes for a period of 9 years. Out of the over 270 million cluster bombs dropped by the US military, about 30% remained unexploded, and about 80 million small bombs were scattered and buried on the territory of Laos, causing disasters to this day. Although the Ministry of National Defense of Laos once set up a special unit to remove unexploded ordnance along the China Laos Railway, the construction of high-speed railway has higher requirements for safety factors along the railway. If the China Laos Railway is built into a high-speed railway, there will be greater potential danger.
Finally, the Lao government hopes that the China Laos Railway can not only carry passengers, but also give more play to the function of freight, that is, to build the China Laos Railway into a "mixed passenger and freight railway". However, to build a high-speed railway that requires both high-speed driving and heavy cargo loading, as well as increasing traffic density, the cost per kilometer is at least 870 billion yuan. The high-speed railway trains consume 4800 kilowatt hours of electricity per hour, which is a relatively heavy burden for the Lao government, which has low financial revenue. Building a 160 kilometer/hour railway for passenger and freight transportation is the choice for maximizing efficiency and economy.
The opening of the China Laos Railway can not only reduce the freight transportation cost between China and Laos by 40% to 50%, but also further reduce the transportation cost in Laos by 20% to 40%, thus providing development opportunities for the upgrading of the industrial structure and the transformation of economic momentum in Laos. According to the prediction of the World Bank, by 2025, driven by the China Laos railway, 380000 Chinese tourists will enter Laos through railway transportation; By 2030, the number of Chinese tourists entering Laos through railway transportation will further climb to 830000, and the proportion of foreign tourists visiting Laos from China will exceed 50%. The World Bank further predicted that with the opening of the China Laos railway and the later railway connection with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries, the overall income of the Lao people will increase by 3.1% to 13%. In the long run, through the China Laos railway, Laos' GDP is expected to increase by 21%.
It can be seen from this that the China Laos railway has not been built into a high-speed railway. It is China and Laos that, based on the spirit of seeking truth from facts, have avoided increasing the financial burden of the Lao government during the construction process. At the same time, it also reflects that China will assist countries along the "the Belt and Road", including Laos, in infrastructure construction. It will not aim too high or waste too much. Instead, it will act according to its ability on the basis of scientific demonstration and focus on practical results, so that countries along the "the Belt and Road" can build infrastructure at the minimum cost and maximize its value. Moreover, as long as the conditions are mature in the future, the domestic economy of Laos will develop rapidly, and the people from all walks of life in Laos have a strong demand for high-speed railways. Coupled with the financial situation of the Lao government, it is believed that Laos will soon have its first high-speed railway constructed with the assistance of China. (The authors are respectively Dean and Honorary Dean of the "the Belt and Road" Research Institute of Hainan University)